Buying your first home in the GTA has never been easy, and with the recent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, it’s about to become even more challenging. These tariffs will drive up construction costs, resulting in higher home prices, fewer new builds, and increased competition in the resale market. If you’re a first-time buyer, you might be wondering: should I buy now or wait? This post outlines the key changes in the market, what they mean for you, and how you can mitigate your risks to make the best decision for your future.

What First-Time Buyers Need to Know

1. New Homes Will Cost More

With a 25% tariff looming on Canadian steel and aluminum, builders will face higher costs, and, unfortunately, those are passed down to buyers. Whether it’s a brand-new condo or a detached home, expect prices to climb as materials become more expensive.

2. Prices Are Already Going Up

Because builders will face increasing costs, home prices will rise rapidly. If you’re looking to purchase new construction, be prepared to spend more than you would have a few months ago.

3. Fewer Homes Will Be Built

Many developers are pumping the brakes on new projects due to the uncertainty of future costs. Fewer new builds mean less inventory, making the existing market even more competitive.

4. Condo Prices Will Also Rise

Most materials for condos come from the U.S. with tariffs in place; those prices are climbing, too. If you were banking on buying a pre-construction condo, be prepared for higher prices.

5. Renting Is About to Get More Expensive

Fewer homes being built means fewer rental properties. With high demand, rents will continue to rise, making it harder for first-time buyers to save for a down payment.

6. More Competition in the Resale Market

With fewer new homes available, buyers will focus on resale properties. This means bidding wars, faster sales, and homes going for over asking price.

7. Lenders and Investors Are Getting Nervous

Banks and investors are extra cautious because no one knows how long tariffs will last or how high costs will go. This could tighten financing options, making mortgage approvals trickier.

8. Retaliatory Tariffs Could Make It Worse

If Canada responds with its tariffs on U.S. construction materials like lumber, concrete, and windows, home prices will climb even higher.

9. Delays Today Mean Even Fewer Homes Tomorrow

Significant developments take years to complete. The delays we’ll be seeing now will result in even fewer homes hitting the market in the next 2–3 years, driving prices up even more.

10. Uncertainty Is the Biggest Risk

Developers, lenders, and buyers alike have no clear picture of how high costs could go, making it harder to plan. The longer this uncertainty continues, the harder it will be for first-time buyers to navigate the market.

What This Means for the Resale Market

1. Resale Homes Will Get More Expensive

As new builds become unaffordable, more buyers will turn to resale homes, pushing prices up.

2. Move-In-Ready Homes Are Gold

With renovation costs soaring, buyers will want homes that don’t need work. If you’re buying, be prepared to compete harder for turn-key properties.

3. Bidding Wars Are Coming Back

With fewer options available, expect multiple offers, fast sales, and homes going over the asking price.

4. Condos and Townhouses Will Be Hot

Affordability concerns will push more buyers toward entry-level homes, making them a better investment.

5. Sellers Are Holding Off

Some homeowners who plan to sell are reconsidering, knowing that finding their next home might be challenging. This could limit inventory even further.

6. Investors Are Holding On

With rental prices climbing, investors may start holding onto properties, further tightening supply in the resale market.

How First-Time Buyers Can Protect Themselves

1. Consider Buying Sooner

With prices set to rise, buying now could lock in a lower price before things get worse.

2. Secure a Long Mortgage Rate Hold

Interest rates fluctuate. Locking in a 90–120-day mortgage rate hold can give you peace of mind.

3. Choose Resale Over Pre-Construction

Buying a resale home means you avoid the risk of construction delays and price jumps.

4. Pick High-Demand Areas

Stick to areas near transit, schools, and jobs - these locations tend to hold their value even in uncertain markets.

5. Think Smaller

Detached homes are seeing the most significant price hikes. If budget is a concern, consider a townhouse or condo.

6. Be Ready for Bidding Wars

Get pre-approved, know your budget, and be ready to move fast when you find a home.

7. Avoid Fixer-Uppers

Renovations will cost more than expected. Unless you’re ready for that, stick with move-in-ready homes.

8. Consider Homes with Rental Potential

A basement apartment or rental suite can help offset your mortgage payments.

9. Keep a Contingency Fund

Unexpected costs happen. Having 3–6 months of savings will keep you prepared.

10. Work with an Experienced Agent

A good real estate agent can help you navigate this tricky market and avoid costly mistakes.

Final Thoughts

The GTA housing market is changing fast, and first-time buyers must be proactive. With prices rising and competition getting more brutal, those who act sooner will have the advantage. While waiting might seem like a safer option, the reality is that home prices and rents are only going up.

If you’re serious about buying, take action now: get pre-approved, research your options, and work with an experienced agent who understands the market.

It’s a challenging time to buy, but with the right strategy, you can still find a great home - before prices climb even higher.